Due to the steep decline of worldwide financial markets and the meteoric rise and collapse of oil prices, the second half of 2008 was a roller coaster ride that made anything you might find at an amusement park tame by comparison. Traumatic events like these tend to change how people do things, and what happens in 2009 will be no exception.
We see three broad themes growing out of these larger events and resonating in the technology world over the coming year: energy conservation, the increased demand for information security, and the relentless march toward fully mobile computing that allows users to access all their digital content from anywhere. The bottom line: A year from now, we'll all be closer to living and working off our mobile devices and switching off our PCs and laptops.
1. Energy conservation and green IT
The combination of an economic downturn, unpredictable energy costs, and sporadic energy shortages such as were recently experienced in the southeastern U.S., will accelerate the trend toward green IT. Corporate purchasing practices will favor energy-efficient servers, storage, and networking devices, which, in some cases, pay for themselves in a matter of months by reducing energy consumption. Virtualization, which further cuts energy costs by consolidating resources onto fewer devices, will continue to be a key theme in data centers. Some companies may even be influenced to speed the transition to cloud computing (where energy costs are borne by the provider) in order to insulate themselves from dramatic energy price swings.
On the supply side of the energy equation, there are no quick solutions in sight. Alternative energy sources will take years to develop and bring online; nuclear energy will take decades to go from concept to operating plant. With no silver bullet on the power generation side, energy conservation will be very big in 2009.
2. Security is a priority
One byproduct of the economic downturn is that a large number of tech-savvy people will lose their jobs worldwide. Inevitably, some will gravitate toward cybercrime to make ends meet, worsening an already harsh environment for information security.
Theft of personal information, which can be sold or exploited online for criminal uses, continues to expand, and attack methods are increasingly sophisticated. For example, as consumers have become more vigilant about phishing-fraudulent mass e-mails that try to trick recipients into revealing personal information-a high-stakes and precisely targeted variant, spear phishing, has evolved. This method typically attempts to dupe corporate executives into revealing sensitive corporate information by impersonating trusted colleagues or customers.
In this climate, there will be a heavy focus in 2009 on authenticating user identities with greater certainty and on assuring that confidential information remains confidential. One likely result is that passwords, which are easily compromised, will fall into massive disfavor and be supplanted by more robust access controls such as strong authentication methods that provide a higher level of assurance that users are who they claim to be. Information itself will be better protected using tools such as encryption and data loss prevention. Increasingly, storage for enterprises, small businesses, and even consumers will be connected to cloud-based secure storage services backed by major branded vendors.
3. Going massively mobile
In 2008, the iPhone and similar products gained wide acceptance, making services more affordable and triggering a virtual tsunami of offerings. 2009 will be the year people realize they want all their digital "stuff" (phone, voicemail, apps, music, movies, e-mail) to be accessible anywhere, from a single mobile device-and in a secure manner. That vision is moving closer to reality, thanks to the ongoing buildout of WiMAX infrastructure and the availability of wireless broadband connectivity services that allow users to take their broadband experience with them.
Users will be able to store their content with the provider, where it will be properly protected and backed up, two tasks consumers are notoriously poor at doing themselves. This latter capability will increase users' trust in mobile computing. Services that sync users' home and office data and documents with their mobile devices (or otherwise provide access to them) should ramp strongly as will the sale of the devices themselves. By the end of the year users will even be able to access other devices such as home security cameras from their mobile devices. When people have access to their content wherever they go, increased productivity and new applications quickly follow.
The digital world in 2009: efficient, safe, and mobile
In 2009 conservation efforts will lower our energy consumption. We'll shift our sensitive electronic assets off our energy-hogging PCs and onto remote services that are efficiently managed and locked up behind much stronger access controls. Nonetheless, our content and favorite applications will remain accessible to us via handheld devices that are with us wherever we go.
As we become electronically untethered from our home and office systems, let's hope we all use this freedom to enjoy the world more. In any case, these changes will allow us to make more informed decisions and become better employees and more engaged members of society. And in a few short years we'll likely wonder how anyone lived without a mobile Internet device or smart phone.
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